How to not predict the future without even trying

In between the writing of my NiemanLab prediction over Thanksgiving and the time it was published today, Meta announced this:

We’re beginning to offer a wider variety of real-time content on Meta AI — from global, breaking news to entertainment, lifestyle stories, and more. When you ask Meta AI news-related questions, you’ll now receive information and links that draw from more diverse content sources to help you discover timely and relevant content tailored to your interests

As the first step in our content expansion, we’re partnering with a variety of outlets — CNN, Fox News, Fox Sports, Le Monde Group, the People Inc. portfolio of media brands, The Daily Caller, The Washington Examiner, USA TODAY and the USA TODAY Network. We’ll continue to add new partnerships and explore new features to enhance the experience for the people who use our products.

To paraphrase one paragraph from my prediction:

For decades, news organizations have tried to win while playing by Big Tech’s rules...the platforms own the pipes, but publishers can own the intelligence that matters most to our communities.

Facebook does not care about news, or local or community. Nor does Apple or Axios, AOL, Google, NextDoor or Yahoo, to name just a few alphabetically, not chronologically.

You may notice some of those initiatives are still active and ostensibly growing. That does not change the verdict. Corporations (including some that run local newsrooms) only care about news to the extent it offers prestige or profits. The Hartford Courant was founded in 1764. Get back to me if Meta is still "enhancing" its AI with news by 17:54 next Thursday.

News in some form, (and some of it produced by businesses already 200 years old) will outlast the current batch of tech darlings. MySpace, Napster or Quibi anyone? The "problem" with news is a market failure, not a fundamental change in the consumer need for quality, trusted and local information.

I did not include this phrase in the NiemanLab piece out of brevity, but community news exists behind a "Local Event Horizon" from which very little relevant information escapes onto the Big Tech platforms. When Facebook et al. says "local" they think Dallas or Denver or Atlanta and mean, "whatever news we can collect for minimal effort and cost." When small town publishers say "local" they think about places like Linn, Missouri and mean, "how can we continue to accurately report on meetings discussing county government liability insurance." This actual local and often essential information is spread among thousands of small news outlets and allied sites across the country. It is difficult for algorithms to find, aggregate, parse, and monetize it—so they don't.

CNN or USA Today may benefit from playing games with Facebook - but signing distributions deals with Big Tech is absolutely the wrong path forward for the industry. Local publishers must still take advantage of the opportunities digital offers to keep local communities to stay informed—but they have to do it from beyind the reach of platform power. And that's what my (probably always wrong in its optimism) prediction was: Publishers fight Big Tech with small local language models