The irrationality of clinging to a sinking platform

The Guardian reported today on Substack’s willingness to amplify—and profit from—Nazi content. And yet, people launch new blogs on the site daily?

There are a few cognitive biases wrapped up in why people voluntarily endure what Cory Doctorow named “enshittification,” or, in less scatological terms, “platform decay.” The first is present bias: we overvalue immediate costs and benefits relative to future ones; sunk costs: we fear wasting past effort or investment; and loss aversion: we avoid pain more than we value gain.

Interrelated are the more tangible explanations:

1. It is part of your job, OR
2. You are happily amoral / pro-Nazi, OR
3. You are woefully uninformed on the topic, OR
4. You have moral qualms, but live for the engagement, OR
5. You don’t consider the values and politics of the owners relevant, OR
6. You constantly think about switching, but can’t yet bring yourself to do it.

I can’t solve #1–5 for you, but #6 is where cognitive bias plays its part. In this context, sinking with the platform is driven by the immediate effort and pain of leaving, the regret at the loss of your current network, and the fear you may not be able to rebuild elsewhere.

And of course, no change is easy. It requires four elements:

1. We recognize the opportunity.
2. We correctly evaluate the urgency.
3. We have a practical and reliable path forward.
4. The eventual outcome will benefit us.

In the case of platform decay, keeping your cognitive biases from distorting your sense of urgency is the main thing. When I relaunched this blog, I went with Ghost instead of even considering Substack. Similarly, I closed my Twitter account the day Elon walked into Twitter HQ carrying a sink. With no adults left in the room, things could only get worse, and they have. But more importantly, I’ve spent the last three years rebuilding the value and utility of my network on Bluesky. Meanwhile, the value of X erodes every day, and if you’re still there, you face years of catch-up on a new platform when the last straw eventually falls.

That breaking point is idiosyncratic, but you can almost always sense when the decline begins. Deciding to ignore it is a choice, and rationally speaking, you are better off jumping early and rebuilding, or at the very least, don't join late.